![]() It is the simplest explanation (although, I`ll admit, not the most likely).Īlso, these results obviously don`t say that people get faster as time goes by. So, how did he do it? Well, I like to think he is actually a visitor from the future. ![]() I gathered the yearly Men`s 100m best record since 1968, and produced the below scatter plot, to get a feel of the data.Įven though the model is not perfect, and 2048 may be a bit of a stretch, it is a nice enough fit to conclude that reaching 9.58s any time before 2030 is, well, quite spectacular, even accounting for our model mean error of 0.06s (the square root of out MSE). How simple are we talking about?įrom here on, I`ll show what I did. I tackled this problem recently and, based on a very, very simple linear regression model, I estimate that Bolt`s record was not expected before at least 2039! Given that the best result since Bolt`s retirement was a mere 9.76s 10 years after that night in Berlin, this result definitely does not seem so far off. When the dust settled, a question emerged: when will we see a new world record holder? When will someone be able to repeat such stellar performances? Then, with the exception of a few sparks from Gatlin and Coleman, no one ever came close of his performances (and to be fair, his amazing competitors in Powell, Blake and Gay). He needed only one year to do the same.Įventually, age came, and Bolt sadly retired without finishing his last race, hurting himself right at the start. ![]() It may seem like nothing, but consider that since 1999, the world record had improved only 0.10 seconds. His previous record of 9.69s, achieved exactly one year before, already seemed out of this world. Salih Zeki Fazlioglu | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images History is Sprintedįor 9.58 seconds, I did not take a breath.
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